Like SpaceX, Anduril flipped the traditional business model of defense sales-instead of bidding on Department of Defense (DOD) requests for proposals (RFPs), Anduril takes on the R&D costs upfront, selling pre-developed products into the Pentagon and undercutting bigger defense contractors on price. Sacra estimates that Anduril’s revenue hit $236M in 2022 (up 57% from $150M in 2021) in 2022 and is on track for $342M (up 45%) in 2023 for a 25x EV/sales multiple on their market cap of $8.5B.Ĭompare to SpaceX at $4.6B in revenue in 2022, up 100% year-over-year with a 30x EV/sales multiple on a $137B market cap, Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) at $66B (down 1.58%) in revenue with a 1.5x multiple on a $100B market cap, and Raytheon (NYSE: RTX) at $67B (up 4.17%) in revenue with a 1.5x multiple on a $100B market cap. The mid-2010s rise of DNNs (deep neural networks) that can be trained in hours rather than weeks and run on a single GPU at the edge instead of ~100s enabled the rise of self-driving car programs like Tesla’s Autopilot that need each node in the network to analyze its surroundings and make decisions.Īfter selling Oculus VR to Meta (NASDAQ: META), Palmer Luckey started Anduril (2017), hiring key ML and computer vision engineers away from autonomous driving projects and repurposing their advances towards building border-protecting drones and sentry towers. To build the next Lockheed Martin, they’ll have to overcome the government’s moral aversion both to profit margins greater than 15% and the SaaS business model. Anduril got to an estimated $342M in revenue in 2023 by repurposing the ML and computer vision tech behind autonomous cars towards national defense.
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